Aluminum market analysis
The performance of US economic data is in line with expectations. The market has great concerns about the implementation of the new policies after the Trump administration came to power. The US dollar index remains strong. The domestic policy side continues to release positive signals. The macro sentiment is both bullish and bearish, and the impact on the market is neutral. On December 10, 2024, the CIF price of Guinea aluminum ore reached US$100/ton, up 42% year-on-year, while the CIF price of Australian aluminum ore was US$78/ton, up 50% year-on-year. Overseas alumina quickly adjusted back after quoting high prices first. On December 10, the latest overseas transaction of alumina was 30,000 tons, with a transaction price of $680/mt FOB Western Australia, which was $70/mt lower than the previous transaction price of $750/mt FOB in Eastern Australia. The decline was obvious, and the window of alumina import losses was quickly repaired, but from the reality that the port inventory of alumina is still destocking, import replenishment is still limited.
The spot prices of bauxite and alumina have raised the core costs of electrolytic aluminum smelting production, and the cost side has given strong support to aluminum prices. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum production is close to the ceiling, and it is difficult to expect an increase, but the supply remains high. The pressure of increasing the proportion of molten aluminum to deliver ingots is not great. There is a clear rush for exports in November. Under the off-season consumption, the low level of aluminum ingots in the social inventory may accumulate in December. It is difficult for the demand in the aluminum market to exceed expectations before the Lunar New Year. Although the current spot price of alumina has loosened, it is still at a historical high. The tight supply of alumina supports high prices. Continue to pay attention to changes in inventory and warehouse receipts. In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly due to demand, and the actual downward space is limited. Wait for the adjustment to end and intervene at a low level to go long.