The new era provides opportunities for the development of aluminum and aluminum alloys
As the times develop, people have higher requirements for energy conservation, environmental protection and safety. Vigorously developing the aluminum industry plays an irreplaceable role in improving these three aspects.
1. Aluminum is a renewable resource. The aluminum element in the earth's crust is very rich, and the used aluminum can be re-smelted and used again. It saves energy and reduces pollution. Aluminum seems to have become an inexhaustible material that can be used by humans for a long time at least.
2. Aluminum coil is a key material for lightweighting and informatization in aerospace and modern transportation.
3. The wide application of aluminum coil in construction can effectively reduce the overall weight of the building, allowing many materials to be lightweight designed, reducing waste, and to a certain extent, it is also a saving.
4. The service life of aluminum coil and aluminum alloys is longer than that of ordinary steel products. Due to some of its own characteristics, aluminum can form an oxide layer during use, thereby reducing rust.
It can be seen that aluminum coil and aluminum materials can indeed play a certain role in improving the environment, saving resources, and saving energy.
Aluminum coil and aluminum materials will play a more important role in basic materials.
The rapid development and widespread application of aluminum and aluminum alloy materials have, to a certain extent, replaced steel as the basic material for all industrial sectors and society as a whole.
With the continuous advancement of the dual-carbon policy, backward production capacity has been eliminated and existing production facilities have been improved to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.
High corrosion resistance, excellent strength-to-weight ratio and good formability make aluminum a major industrial metal in construction, transportation, packaging and machinery and equipment. The increase in the penetration rate of new energy in the automotive field and the development trend of lightweight car bodies have driven the rapid growth of aluminum demand. Under the background of stable growth, new energy infrastructure is also expected to develop. The construction of photovoltaics and power grids has promoted a large increase in the proportion of aluminum used in the electronics and power industries.
Judging from the current development trends in the lightweight field, aluminum coil alloys may become a new trend in product development in the future. Steel has the lowest price, but the weight reduction effect is poor; aluminum price range and weight reduction range are both in the better range; titanium and magnesium prices are relatively high, the density of magnesium is about 1/2 of aluminum, but the price is 3 times that of aluminum Times, currently the economy is lower than that of aluminum; carbon fiber materials have the best weight reduction effect, but the current cost is too high.
Due to a series of unique advantages of aluminum, it has developed very rapidly. Currently, the world's electrolytic aluminum production has exceeded 68 million tons and is still growing rapidly. It can be seen that the aluminum industry is becoming more and more important in the national production process.
Destocking will improve quality, and aluminum prices will enter a virtuous cycle
At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China has fallen sharply and is showing a trend of destocking. According to the SMM database, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions of the country has continued to increase significantly since the end of December 2022, and on March 2, 2023, it reached a new high of 1.269 million tons since April 27, 2020, and then turned downward, with a downward trend. Turn on. As of the end of April, compared with the highest point, inventory dropped by 416,000 tons, a decrease of 38.24%. Electrolytic aluminum is currently showing a destocking trend. Since entering the second quarter, electrolytic aluminum stocks have entered a seasonal reduction stage, and the overall inventory performance is improving. LME+ electrolytic aluminum inventory in the previous exchange is at a historically low level, and low inventory limits the room for continued correction in aluminum prices. As of 2023Q1, LME inventories were 520,900 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories were 206,900 tons, totaling 727,800 tons, the lowest inventory level in the past decade. Since the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum fell below the 1 million tons red line on February 25, 2022, it has continued to decline. The production cuts of a large number of smelters have continued to expand the market gap. Although overseas will still be in the interest rate hike cycle, further rise in interest rates will inhibit overseas consumption. As the Asian economy recovers, the Fed's interest rate hikes slow down, and demand picks up, low inventories will further support aluminum prices, and aluminum prices are expected to enter an upward cycle.