1-3-2025 China Aluminum Price：CNY 19,870 / MT

The arrival volume of bauxite in Guinea has gradually recovered, but it is difficult for domestic mines to increase, and the price of ore remains relatively strong. Following the decline in overseas alumina spot prices, alumina spot prices in some parts of the country have also loosened, but the current alumina inventory is still low and the supply and demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the spot price is unlikely to fall sharply. As aluminum prices weaken, processing companies have successively stocked up on dips, coupled with low market arrivals, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still being liquidated. Last week, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum fell by 47,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum bars increased by 14,500 tons. The cost-side support is still effective, and the supply and demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. It is difficult for alumina futures prices to fall sharply for the time being, and short selling after a rebound can be considered. The cost support logic has weakened, consumption will enter the seasonal off-season, and the pressure on aluminum prices will increase, continuing the volatile market.