1-2-2025 China Aluminum Price：CNY 19,870 / MT

Alumina prices continued to adjust downward in a narrow range, and cost support weakened. Aluminum supply and demand did not change much, and electrolytic aluminum refineries increased and decreased production, and the overall performance of aluminum supply was stable. On the demand side, seasonal consumption was off-season, and the cancellation of export tax rebates and regional environmental protection restrictions and other factors affected the operating rate of downstream aluminum enterprises. Although the overall domestic aluminum demand is still in the off-season, most of the recent shipments from Xinjiang are in transit and have not yet arrived, and the social warehouse of aluminum ingots remains in a state of destocking. The current low inventory level still supports aluminum prices. However, the destocking of aluminum ingots may be difficult to sustain. SMM said that it is expected that the inflection point of domestic aluminum ingot inventory will most likely appear in early January. There has been no significant change in the supply side recently, the operating capacity is generally stable, the output has been slightly adjusted, and imports have dropped slightly. In the short term, there may still be some reserve behavior. With the end of the pre-holiday reserve, the market may enter the stage of accumulation. In addition, as the price of alumina gradually falls, the cost will also fall. Aluminum prices will weaken seasonally, and the support of 19600-19800 should be paid attention to in the short term.