12-30 China Aluminum Price：CNY 19,710 / MT

According to SMM, many domestic electrolytic aluminum companies have reduced production due to high costs of alumina and electricity, severe corporate losses or technological improvements, and are expected to resume production in the fourth quarter of 2025. As of the end of December, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.53 million tons.
LME aluminum rose 0.04% to $2,557.0/Mt. In terms of macroeconomics, overseas market trading was relatively flat, and the US dollar index maintained a narrow range of fluctuations at the 108 mark. In terms of supply and demand, bauxite supply continued to be tight; domestic alumina spot quotations continued to decline; in December, electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased and decreased, and the operating capacity remained at 43.53 million tons. After the aluminum price continued to weaken, new orders from downstream were purchased on dips, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories fell below 500,000 tons. The mood for receiving goods in East China and other places was good, and the spot discount continued to narrow. Overall, the macro-driven is insufficient, and consumption has rebounded after the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum has shifted downward. Coupled with the dense cost support, the downward space may be relatively limited.