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The conflict between the United States and the Middle East has led to rising crude oil prices, pushing up overseas aluminum costs.

This week, the price of aluminum ingots has shown a downward trend, with a increase of CNY 304/Mt compared to last week to CNY 20,726/Mt.Since last week, aluminum prices have risen sharply and then fell slightly, fluctuating between CNY20,500/Mt and CNY20,700/Mt.
In May, China's national economy has been generally stable and steady. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. In May, there were no new projects or maintenance or production reduction projects in domestic electrolytic aluminum refineries. The supply of electrolytic aluminum raw materials was sufficient, the profit was acceptable, and the output increased month-on-month. Entering June, SMM said that the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high. Combined with the progress of the remaining new or replacement projects this year, there is no expectation of commissioning in the short term. From the perspective of electrolytic aluminum production, the current supply of electrolytic aluminum remains high, but there is no more pressure to start production in the future. The overall performance is stable, and the fundamentals need to pay more attention to changes in downstream demand. The average operating rate of processing enterprises fell by 0.5% to 60.4% during the week. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1% to 63.2%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 1.5% to 54%, the operating rate of aluminum strips decreased by 1% to 65.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum foils remained stable at 70.7%. Entering the seasonal consumption off-season, downstream demand performance weakened. It is reported that the operating rate of primary aluminum processing enterprises has gradually weakened, the overall market has begun to shrink, the photovoltaic sector has performed particularly well, and the demand for the construction sector has continued to weaken; the concentrated delivery period of the aluminum cable industry has passed, and the start-up of enterprises has also declined slightly.

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