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What Impact Will The Suspension Of Aluminum Mining In Guinea Have On China's Aluminum Market?

May 23, 2025 Leave a message

 

Average price of 05/19-05/23:CNY 20,298/Mt

This week, the price of aluminum ingots is still on the rise. Compared with last week, the average price of aluminum increased by CNY166/Mt to CNY 20,298/Mt.

The US PMI data in May fell into the expansion range, and the economic performance showed strong resilience. Guinea's supply instability continued to increase, and the tight supply of raw materials pushed up the price of alumina. The cost of electrolytic aluminum smelting also rose, raising the bottom price of aluminum. June entered the off-season for demand, and electrolytic aluminum may gradually shift to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. This week, the inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly and then decreased again and the is still support prices.

0519-0523aluminum price
 

What impact will the suspension of aluminum mining in Guinea have on China's aluminum market?

 

 

In May 2025, the Guinean government continued to strengthen the control of mining resources, with the goal of promoting high added value of the local industrial chain, and frequently revoked the mining licenses of foreign-funded mining companies. On May 14, Transitional President Doumbouya announced the revocation of the mining licenses of more than 40 mining companies, involving 7 bauxite companies, of which the Axis mining area (annual production capacity of 40 million tons) was ordered to stop work, and the resumption time is uncertain. As the world's second largest bauxite producer, Guinea's policy changes have brought significant uncertainty to the global bauxite supply pattern, especially to China's alumina industry, which is highly dependent on imported bauxite.
Reduced supply of bauxite: Guinea is the largest source of bauxite imports for China. In 2024, bauxite imported from Guinea accounted for about 70% of China's total demand. Faced with uncertainty in bauxite supply, alumina production has begun to take production reduction measures, which directly affects China's bauxite supply (about 33.85 million tons/year)
Aluminum price increase: The reduction in bauxite supply and the shortage of supply will drive up bauxite prices and cause alumina prices to rise rapidly in the short term, putting pressure on the downstream aluminum smelting industry and increasing production costs.

How will China deal with its bauxite supply problem?

Inventory is temporarily sufficient

 

China's bauxite imports increased by 34.27% year-on-year from January to April 2025, and the inventory is adequate. In the short term, the supply of ore is still sufficient, providing relatively sufficient raw material guarantee for alumina production. In the short term, port inventory can support about 10.69 million tons of alumina production.

Increase supply sources

 

In order to cope with the risk of bauxite supply interruption in Guinea, China will increase the development and procurement of other alternative supply sources. On the one hand, China may increase imports from traditional bauxite exporting countries such as Australia, Guyana, and Brazil. on the other hand, it will also actively explore new supply channels to optimize the import structure of bauxite and reduce its dependence on Guinea.

Strengthen scrap aluminum recycling

 

 In 2024, China's total scrap aluminum recycling will be 11.06 million tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. The Chinese government supports and encourages enterprises to increase the research and development and application of scrap aluminum recycling technology to increase the recycling rate and reuse rate of scrap aluminum.  

 

Focusing On Producing Colored Aluminum Coil

 

 

 

Product drawing

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Colored Aluminum Coil Specification

 

Thickness

0.15mm-2mm

Width

Max 1650mm,support customer customization

Coating thickness

≥18 microns (PE), ≥25 microns (PVDF),or as customer request

Color

RAL color card or customization as customer sample color 

Glossiness

10-90%

Coating

PVDF / HDP/PE

Coil inter diameter

405mm, 505mm, 605mm

Package

Eye to wall,Eye to sky

Warranty

8-10 years for PE coating, 20-25 years for PVDF coating.

 

 
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